Electoral Debrief​

Steve Daines won the senate election by getting 331,414 votes compared to Steve Bullock's 271,209 votes. The Montana Senate race was the most competitive and expensive race in the nation, with about $150 million spent by candidates and outside groups on the campaign. Until election day, the polls showed a tight race with candidates in deadlock within one percentage point. Few unexpected issues played a role in the final election outcome, such as Steve Bullock's rejection of Supreme Court Justice Barrett's confirmation just two days preceding the election and the influence of national election. The state voters overwhelmingly elected President Trump, giving him as much as a 20 percentage point lead over the Democratic opponent Joe Biden. Steve Daines associated himself strongly with President Trump, voting for almost 86% of Trump's agenda. His opposition to Public Option in the Affordable Care Act also was endorsed by most republican dominated state voters. The national election for president played a significant role in the senate race. The state has a larger population of Republicans among registered voters overall, and they strongly supported President Trump as Steve Daines did greatly as well. We predicted that the Democratic candidate Steve Bullock would win. Our prediction did not come true though, for he lost by ten percentage points. The polls were conducted before the election, yet until election day, this ten-percentage point difference was not reflected. Polls were showing too tight a race with both candidates within one percentage point of each other. Therefore, polls were inaccurate. This was probably because shy Trump voters who voted for Steve Daines did not open up about their choice to pollsters. Again, the main essential reasons, as listed above, that decided the outcome of this election was the Presidential election and Steve Daines's strong association with Trump, Steve Bullock's last-minute opposition to the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Barrett, and his support to the public option in Affordable Care Act.